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比特币重演“.com”衰亡史,只是速度快15倍

Chris Morris 2018年04月02日

比特币的兴衰史与当年的“.com”泡沫十分相像,无非是“.com”泡沫破裂的过程要慢了许多。

历史上“其兴也勃焉,其衰也忽焉”的故事数不胜数,岂唯比特币而已。摩根士丹利也指出,比特币的兴衰史与当年的“.com”泡沫十分相像,无非是“.com”泡沫破裂的过程要慢了许多。

摩根士丹利近日在一篇文章中指出,比特币的价格走向曲线很像“.com”泡沫时期的纳斯达克综指。只不过这一次,比特币泡沫的速度要比世纪之交的“.com”快了15倍之多。

那么二者究竟有多相像呢?自从比特币问世以来,其币值经历过四次幅度达45%到50%的大跌,不过之后平均每次都会回升47%左右。而纳指从2000年开始也曾有过五次大幅震荡,平均每次下跌44%,之后又会回升约40%。

比特币与“.com”的成交量模式也是惊人地相似。

当然,随便一个比特币经纪人都会告诉你,以前的表现对以后的行为并没有什么指导意义。虽说现在纳指已经比2002年的最低点时回升了许多(增长了6倍),但没人能保证比特币也能像纳指一样稳健回升。

但对于迷信比特币的人,这些话仍是对牛弹琴。(龙8国际|官网)

译者:朴成奎

If the rise and fall of Bitcoin seems familiar, Morgan Stanley wants to assure you that it is, though you saw things play out a lot slower originally.

The investment firm, in a note, said the cryptocurrency’s price chart is largely mirroring that of the Nasdaq composite index during the dot-com bubble. Only this time, things are moving 15 times faster than they did in the mid-90s and early 2000s.

How similar are things, exactly? Since its creation, Bitcoin has seen four bear waves, where prices have dropped 45-50%, typically rebounding an average of 47% afterward. Nasdaq, starting in 2000, had five of those waves, averaging 44% declines, followed by 40% rebounds.

Trading volume patterns are also eerily similar.

Of course, as any broker will tell you, past performance is not indicative of future behavior. And while Nasdaq has rallied nicely from its low in 2002 (increasing six-fold), that’s no guarantee Bitcoin will do the same.

But try telling that to crypto enthusiasts.

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