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华尔街投资者最担心贸易战

LUCINDA SHEN 2018年03月25日

大多数投资者将对贸易战的担忧,排在了通货膨胀、恐怖主义和美联储之前。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普公布对华征收关税方案,进一步加剧了投资者对贸易战的担忧。 Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对中国商品征收关税,涉及金额高达每年600亿美元,消息传出后,华尔街投资者对于贸易战的担忧甚至超过了对恐怖主义的担忧。

CNBC联邦调查(Fed Survey)公布了这一结果。调查发现接受调查的40名华尔街投资者,最大的担忧是贸易保护主义。有75%的受访者将对贸易战的担忧,排在了通货膨胀、恐怖主义和美联储之前。

在调查期间,有报道称特朗普准备对中国商品征收关税,涉及金额达到600亿美元,是最初估计金额的两倍。《华盛顿邮报》报道称,特朗普至少将在周五公布部分关税措施。作为回应,中国国家总理李克强警告称“中美贸易战没有赢家。”包括多年来通过销售廉价中国商品获益的沃尔玛(Walmart)和好市多(Costco)在内的美国零售商,呼吁美国总统重新考虑关税措施。

经济学家和自由贸易倡议者也不支持特朗普征收钢铝关税的决定。虽然白宫将允许授予关税豁免,但豁免规则仍不明确。

投资者似乎非常担心特朗普的关税计划对股市的影响。自去年7月份以来,CNBC调查的受访者首次降低了对标准普尔500指数的前景预期。

新任美国国家经济委员会(National Economic Council)主席拉里·库德洛似乎认为关税是一种谈判工具,而不是最终结局。

本月早些时候,库德洛接受了《纽约客》采访,他在提到特朗普时表示:“当特朗普总统宣布对所有国家征收关税的时候,我是不赞同的。但另一方面,在这些天与总统先生的对话中,他非常明确地指出他自己也不喜欢征收关税!我认为特朗普总统会推出定向关税,这是计划的一部分。而中国将成为被针对的目标。”(龙8国际|官网)

译者:刘进龙/汪皓

As President Donald Trump imposed tariffs against Chinese products totaling a reported $60 billion annually, fears of a potential trade war are topping even those of terrorism among Wall Streeters.

That’s according to a CNBC Fed Survey, which found protectionism to be the top concern among its 40 Wall Streeter respondents. Nearly 75% of survey takers said as much, ranking fears of a trade war above concerns about inflation, terrorism, and the Federal Reserve.

The survey comes amid reports that Trump is planning to tax Chinese products for $60 billion annually, double initial estimates. At least some of those tariff measures could come as soon as Friday, the Washington Post reported. In response, Chinese Premier Li KeQiang warned that “no one will emerge a winner from a trade war.” U.S. retailers, including Walmart and Costco, who have benefitted for years by selling cheaper Chinese products, are urging the president to reconsider such a tariff.

Economists and free trade advocates have also balked at Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum. While the White House is now allowing exemptions on the tariffs, the rules for these exemptions are still unclear.

And investors appear to worry about how it may affect the stock market. For the first time since July, respondents to CNBC’s survey lowered their outlook of the S&P 500.

The new National Economic Council chairman Larry Kudlow appears to see the tariffs more as a negotiating tool than the end game.

“Look, I didn’t like it when he announced across-the-board tariffs around the world,” Kudlow told the New Yorker in reference to Trump earlier this month. “On the other hand, in my conversations with the president in recent days, he’s made it very clear he doesn’t like tariffs either! I think you’ll see targeted tariffs, and that’s part of the game. China is probably going to be a target here.”

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